≫ Members of Solidarity for Peace and Reunification of Korea who wish against South Korea’s full participation in the U.S.-led PSI, place flowers and hold up placards in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, April 14.

The South Korean government decided yesterday to become a full participant in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) on weapons of mass destruction, potentially raising the level of the already-heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula. Some worry that the move is a “dangerous” decision that could lead to a military clash between South and North Korea.

The Seoul government thinks that it is unlikely that the move will prompt North Korea to take any significant countermeasure. It thinks that chances are slim that Pyongyang will scrap an inter-Korean maritime agreement in retaliation to South Korea‘s decision to join in the anti-proliferation drive. “The maritime agreement mostly affects shipments of aid bound for North Korea rather than shipments bound for South Korea,” said an official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. “It is questionable that North Korea will scrap the deal since the decision would lead to an increase in shipping time and fuel consumption as its vessels cannot pass through the Jeju Strait.”

Many critics, however, say that the government is too complacent and has not analyzed the short and long-term ramifications of its PSI decision. They argue, in the short term, North Korea is very likely to raise the level of tensions in response to Seoul’s move to fully participate in the initiative. On March 30, North Korea stated that they would consider the act of South Korea joining fully PSI as an “ultimatum,” vowing to take “stern” countermeasures.

Observers suggest that a possible disconnection or restriction in communication, a test launching of a short-term missile or stepped-up military operations near the Northern Limit Line might be among those measures. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses warned in a report in December 2006 that North Korea is likely to heighten tensions by mobilizing its military forces and causing provocations to discourage South Korea from joining PSI.

In the long term, chances will likely grow that a military clash or some diplomatic friction with China could take place. Under PSI, South Korean military and maritime police could intercept, challenge, warn, board, or seize North Korean ships suspected of carrying shipments related with weapons of mass destruction. If North Korea resists or mobilizes its military forces, a clash would be inevitable. Jung Young-cheol, professor of Sogang University, said, “Full participation in PSI is equivalent to an official announcement of a confrontational stance against North Korea. North Korea will likely take countermeasures saying that it will be impossible to normalize inter-Korean relations or that a war would be unavoidable.”