South Korea could end up in a position of having to choose between China and US-Japan alliance

By Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporter

The interim report on revising the US and Japan’s mutual defense guidelines that the two countries announced on Oct. 8 seems likely to increase tensions in the security environment throughout Northeast Asia around the Korean peninsula. There is a good chance that South Korea will face pressure to choose between the US and China, and the revised guidelines could also have a considerable influence on South Korea’s relations with Japan and with North Korea.

First of all, the interim report states that “the two governments will promote trilateral and multilateral security and defense cooperation with regional allies and partners” in areas such as intelligence and logistics support. This suggests that efforts to pass a trilateral military information protection act between South Korea, the US, and Japan will pick up speed. It also means that the mutual acquisition support agreement between South Korea and Japan that the two governments had promoted will be discussed as part of military cooperation among the three countries.

In fact, military cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan has already been proceeding at a rapid pace. In Oct. 2010, the US and South Korea specified in their defense cooperation guidelines that they would strengthen trilateral and multilateral defense cooperation to meet regional and global security challenges.

In addition, Kim Kwan-jin, then South Korean Defense Minister; Chuck Hagel, US Defense Secretary; and Itsunori Onodera, Japanese Defense Minister, met during the Asia Security Summit (Shangri-La Dialogue) in June. After the meeting, they said that they had reconfirmed the importance of sharing intelligence on North Korea’s nuclear weapon and missile threats and that they were in agreement about the need to keep considering this issue in the future.

When asked about the intelligence sharing MOU between South Korea, the US, and Japan during the parliamentary audit at the National Defense Committee on Oct. 7, Han Min-koo, South Korea’s current Defense Minister, said that working-level discussions are currently underway.

Importantly, if South Korea joins the US missile defense system because of its alliance with the US and to create a deterrent for North Korea, this could result in the US-Japan alliance and the South Korea-Japan alliance operating together. Indeed, the South Korean Defense Ministry has been taking a positive stance on the idea of deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced missile defense system, on the Korean peninsula.

Experts are concerned that strengthening military cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan could lead to immediate backlash from China that would damage relations between South Korea and China.

“As activity increases in the US-Japan alliance and as progress is made toward military cooperation or an alliance between South Korea, the US, and Japan as the US hopes, South Korea will find itself part of an alliance intended to counter China, no matter how much it claims that that is not the case,” said Choi Jong-geon, political science professor at Yonsei University.

“If South Korea joins the US missile defense system by bringing THAAD to the peninsula, its relationship with China will collapse, either instantaneously or eventually,” a senior government official expressed worry on condition of anonymity.

The increasing cooperation of the US and Japan could serve to strengthen ties between North Korea, China, and Russia, returning Northeast Asia to the diplomatic landscape that existed during the Cold War. As North Korea’s strategic value increases, its relations with China could improve. Now that North Korea poses a greater threat to security, its opposition could turn inter-Korean relations into a rollercoaster. As American-backed security cooperation plays a greater role in South Korea’s relations with Japan, it is likely that historical issues such as the comfort women would be put on the back burner.

The interim report also states that “the revised Guidelines will detail cooperation between the two governments [. . .] in case of an armed attack against a country that is in close relationship with Japan where Japan's use of force is permitted [. . .].” For South Korea, this is a worrisome passage.

“This means that, if a crisis occurs on the Korean peninsula, the US and Japan would hold deliberations on the issue. It needs to be specifically stated that South Korea will be included in deliberations concerning the Korean peninsula,” said Kim Hyeong-joon, professor at Handong Global University.

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